| Lütfü KÜÇÜK | |
| Chairman of the Board of TUGIAD |
|
As it is widely shown in media organs, we disclosed the “TUGIAD 2009 Survey on Economic and Political Expectations” to the public, on January 20th, 2009 in the Congress Hall of Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), with the participation of our members, the managers of other NGOs, representatives of universities and press members.
The same day, after our press meeting, we organized a panel which brought light to one of the most critical questions of our survey, whish was in fact “integrated” with the outcomes of the survey and which, I believe, provided very important messages to the audience. The participants of this panel with the title “Growth or Organization?” were Prof. Dr. Taner Berksoy, Prof. Dr. Mehmet Altan, Günhan Karakullukçu and Dr. Can Fuat Gürlesel. The chairman was Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkİn.
I thank to the panelists and to the audience.
This TUGIAD 2009 Survey on Economic and Political Expectations, which I want to share with you now, includes very important messages for the government.
I believe that the results and messages of our survey will provide advantages and guidance to our members when making critical business decisions. We all know by experience how important and necessary are reliable data in the in decision making phase.
71% of our members that participated to the survey think that the global crisis will last longer than it is anticipated in the forecasts. According to them, the improvement process would last until 2010 or even 2011.
Turkish economy would experience a serious constriction in 2009. Our members name 2009 as “the lost year”.
70% of our members think that a stand-by agreement must be done with IMF and that this agreement should include “a loan”.
In contrary to the common belief, our businessmen plan to keep their “qualified workforce”, which they see as an important competition factor, up to the end and consider at first, options like increasing efficiency, delaying investments and opening to new markets.
According to the results of the survey, the dominant opinion is that the turnovers will decrease or remain the same in 2009 compared with 2008.
The most important risk factors perceived in 2009 are; “Constriction of the domestic market and the extension of payment maturity dates” and “Banks’ calling in loans” with 26%.
It is seen that there is a concern about banks’ calling in or reluctance to renew loans in 2009. 36% of our members think that this is due to the fact that banks don’t trust to the real sector and again 36% think that this is due to the “banks foreign debt paybacks”.
According to the results of the survey, the primary measure to be taken by the government is “to reduce the tax load on the workforce and to revive domestic demand”. Reduction in indirect taxes, extension of the bank loan warranty system and reduction in energy prices are other primary measures that are proposed.
Our members believe that the government is not willing to take measures due to the coming local election.
85% of TUGIAD members foresee that the Central Bank will continue to reduce interest rates.
Our members’ propositions to the government to support the growth are: the reduction of the loads on the employment and the lowering of the indirect taxes.
93% of our members emphasize that the priority of the government in 2009 should be “the Growth”. The Central Bank is recommended to implement the most flexible monetary policy for the economic growth without neglecting price stability and to continue reducing interest rates.
Dear Elegans readers,
The economy of Turkey slowed down rapidly particularly due to the constriction in export markets and got into a recession process. It will be no more possible to access to abundant and cheap foreign resources that have fueled up the consumption, investments and rapid growth.
During the previous crisis, the improvements were made by turning to traditional export markets with the help of the exchange rates and the conjuncture. In the existing circumstances, there are less and less possibilities to expand in these markets. Methods that have produced positive results can hardly do the same in the existing situation. The need to differentiate, to consider different methods and different markets are sine qua non business realities of today.
Crises are always over, soon or later, but what is important, is to take the measures required to reduce eventual losses to minimum, in a timely manner. We will go on paying the price of faulty and delayed measures by loosing capital, collapse of establishments and perhaps more important of all, by serious employment losses.
We, the management and members of TUGIAD, have been repeating the same message in every platform: “Now, it is time to put the discourse aside and to focus on action in every field”. This message is meant both to the government ant to the business world.
A measure, which is not timely implemented, is not a measure at all.
The situation is suitable for developing the collaboration among the members of TUGIAD members, as we have emphasized and encouraged for a long time. Today we need solidarity and consultation within TUGIAD more than ever. In these difficult days, I invite you to further strengthen our association and to show a bigger part of our potential.
We believe in the strength of Turkey and we are still hopeful for the future.
